I will base my picks using the best lines I can find in Las Vegas at the time I make them. They are available to view here and updated real-time: Vegas lines
Use this LINK for my picks ATS for any week in the future that you do not see them posted here by Saturday. I lost power and cable twice with Hurricane Sandy and the nor'easter that followed the second week. NJ has had its share!
Baltimore vs. San Francisco OVER 47
Result: Baltimore 34 - San Francisco 31 = WIN
Ended the season 31-13-1 = 70% winners!
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Here we are at the pinnacle of the NFL season. It's been a good year of picks to this point (30-13-1 ATS; 69.8% winners). Not bragging, just pleased I was able to provide some help to viewers.
I am looking forward to this game. Coined the "Harbowl", we have two brothers as head coaches battling it out for the Lombardi Trophy. That alone makes for a unique and exciting event. Vegas installed the Niners as the favorites in this match-up, with the opening line at -5 to -4.5 and a total of 49. Ravens bettors jumped on immediately to bring it down a tick, and defense-minded bettors brought the total down to 47.5. We'll have to wait and see what happens close to game.
What impressed me most in the two conference games was that both the Niners and Ravens held their opponents to ZERO points in the second half. Think about that for a minute.
The Niners were installed as favorites by Las Vegas because they are the "popular" team going in. People are enamored by them, and Vegas will always side with the perceived popular team, especially in the Super Bowl....the most wagered game of the year. With this line, they hope to attract bets on both sides, especially with all the hype (thru storylines) that will be produced thru media leading up to gametime.
I have some initial impressions about this match-up that have to do with style of play...that will help me decide which way I plan to go on this game, and will make a decision closer to gametime. But like any other game, I will be conservative and not put all my marbles on this one game...so be smart, play smart, and come out ahead at the end. Be back later... (see above)
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Conference Championship
How does one measure the heart of a man? Or an entire team for that matter? It is not something you can predict ahead of time; because if you could, there would be no mystery.
San Francisco -3.5 at Atlanta
Result: San Francisco 28 - Atlanta 24 = WIN
Baltimore +8 at New England
Result: Baltimore 28 - New England 13 = WIN
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Division Round
Houston at New England -9
Result: Houston 28 - New England 41 - WIN
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Wildcard Round
Minnesota at Green Bay -7.5
Result: Minnesota 10 - Green Bay 24 = WIN
Minnesota at Green Bay Over 46
Result: Minnesota 10 - Green Bay 24 = Loss
Vikings QB was deemed OUT a few minutes before game.
Seattle at Washington +3
Result: Seattle 24 - Washington 14 = Loss
Bit by the quarterback jinx this weekend. RG3 gets hurt after scoring 2 touchdowns in first quarter...and stupid Shanahan plays him until almost the end of 4th quarter!
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Week 17
Wishing viewers good times in the New Year
Carolina at New Orleans -4½
Result: Carolina 44 - New Orleans 38 = Loss
Not how I predicted the above game, but I did finish the regular season 26-12-1 and a 68.4% winning record.
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Week 16
Sorry to be late
Washington -5 at Philadelphia
Result: Washington 27 - Phildelphia 20 = WIN
Tennessee at Green Bay -11
Result: Tennessee 7 - Green Bay 55 = WIN
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Week 15
No pick for Thursday.
Sunday:
Minnesota at St. Louis -2.5
Result: Minnesota 36 - St. Louis 22 = Loss
Tampa Bay at New Orleans -3.5
Result: Tampa Bay 0 - New Orleans 41 = WIN
Sunday Night:
San Francisco at New England -3.5
Result: San Francisco 41 - New England 34 = Loss
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Week 14
Thursday Night: Denver -10 at Oakland
Result: Denver 26 - Oakland 13 = WIN
Sunday:
New Orleans +5 at NY Giants
Result: New Orleans 27 - NY Giants 52 = Loss
Detroit at Green Bay -6
Result: Detroit 20 - Green Bay 27 = WIN
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Week 13
Not too fond of this week's matchups and lines.
New England -7 at Miami
Result: New England 23 - Miami 16 = PUSH
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Week 12
Wishing you all many blessings for Thanksgiving.
Thursday:
New England -6.5 at NY Jets
Result: New England 49 - NY Jets 19 = WIN
Sunday:
San Francisco at New Orleans Over 49
Result: San Francisco 31 - New Orleans 21 = WIN
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Week 11
Green Bay -3 at Detroit
Result: Green Bay 24 - Detroit 20 = WIN
Baltimore at Pittsburgh +3.5
Result: Baltimore 13 - Pittsburgh 10 = WIN
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Week 10
Atlanta at New Orleans +2.5
Result: Atlanta 27 - New Orleans 31 = WIN
Detroit -2.5 at Minnesota
Result: Detroit 24 - Minnesota 34 = Loss
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Week 9
Minnesota at Seattle -4
Result: Minnesota 20 - Seattle 30 = WIN
Pittsburgh +3.5 at New York Giants
Result: Pittsburgh 24 - New York Giants 20 = WIN
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Week 8
Picks should be up on Saturday. Sorry, I have been preparing for hurricane Sandy's arrival in our area.
New England -7 at St. Louis (London)
Result: New England 45 - St. Louis 7 = WIN
Just going with one this week. Many games have weather issues, and others have too many question marks for me to consider. Or, maybe I am just exhausted from pre-hurricane preparations. At any rate, enjoy the games on Sunday. I hope I get to watch the Monday nighter.
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Week 7
It's Sunday night and I am watching the Packer/Texan game. Lines are up for week 7. I have chosen two so far.
Cleveland at Indianapolis -3
Result: Cleveland 13 - Indianapolis 17 = WIN
New Orleans -3 at Tampa Bay
Result: New Orleans 35 - Tampa Bay 28 = WIN
I will look thru the rest as the week progresses. If I like anything else, I'll put it/them up later.
ok, I perused the rest of the games and selected a few more I like.
Tennessee +3½ at Buffalo
Result: Tennessee 35 - Buffalo 34 = WIN
Arizona +7 at Minnesota
Result: Arizona 14 - Minnesota 21 = Push
Dallas -2½ at Carolina
Result: Dallas 19 - Carolina 14 = WIN
Washington +6 at NY Giants
Result: Washington 23 - NY Giants 27 = WIN
Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Cincinnati
Result: Pittsburgh 24 - Cincinnati 17 = WIN
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Week 6
The lines have gone up Sunday night for week 6, and I am getting on this one early:
NY Giants +6 at San Francisco
Result: NY Giants 26 - San Francisco 3 = WIN
That's it for me this weekend. Sometimes you just have to lay low instead of trying to force a play.
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Week 5
Atlanta at Washington UNDER 51
Result: Atlanta 24 - Washington 17 = WIN
Baltimore -6.5 at Kansas City
Result: Baltimore 9 - Kansas City 6 = Loss (win, no cover)
San Diego at New Orleans -3.5
Result: San Diego 24 - New Orleans 31 = WIN
Houston -7.5 at NY Jets
Result: Houston 23 - NY Jets 17 = Loss (win, no cover)
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Week 4
New England -4 at Buffalo
Result: New England 52 - Buffalo 28 = WIN
Minnesota +4 at Detroit
Result: Minnesota 20 - Detroit 13 = WIN
San Francisco -3½ at NY Jets
Result: San Francisco 34 - Jets 0 = WIN
Miami at Arizona -5
Result: Miami 21 - Arizona 24 = Loss
(win, no cover)
The regular refs are back and all is right with the world. If only that were true. In order to save a few bucks of the billions the NFL/owners make each year, they blew it, and will spend considerably more to try and salvage a tarnished reputation. Thanks to the thousands of viewers that came out in support of the regular refs, the NFL and team owners were not able to bust the union. Power and greed lost....at least for the next 8 years. Being a former union member myself in another capacity, I will say that their actions of scab replacements left a bad taste in my mouth for many reasons. To the owners I would say, "If you cannot work with the employees in good faith, then get out of the game. Don't ruin it for the rest of us (the fans) that pay the bills."
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Week 3
Only going with one this weekend.
Philadelphia -3 at Arizona
Calling this loss at halftime, as score is 24-0 Arizona. I had to be out of my mind to make this pick. Had a bad feeling about many of the games....no excuses here.
Result: Philadelphia 6 - Arizona 27 = Loss
Dog Killer should be benched....he is horrific. Spends more time on the ground than upright.
The end of the Monday Night game was a TRAVESTY! Green Bay won that game. How that call of a TD for Seattle was not overturned after reviewing the tape is beyond belief.
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Week 2
I am going with 3 teams on Sunday. These are strictly based on my impression of running games, defenses, and qb/offense combos.
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Seattle
Result: Dallas 7 - Seattle 27 = Loss
Washington Redskins -3 at St. Louis
Result: Washington 28 - St. Louis 31 = Loss
Sunday Night: San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Detroit
Result: San Francisco 27 - Detroit 19 = WIN
No play Monday Night.
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Week 1
Starting out slow. I like to check out the teams in the first couple of weeks of play before I can get my "gut feeling" working.
Detroit -7 vs. St. Louis (as of Sept 5). Basing this mostly on last season's play and records, plus what I observed during preseason.
Result: Detroit 27 - St. Louis 23 = Loss (win, no cover)
Note to Stafford: It's a miracle you won the game after tossing 3 interceptions! What an aggravating game...he was way off much of the time. Have to give kudos to the Jeff Fisher Rams.
As for the rest of the games I want to mention: RG3 was outstanding against the Saints; "Dog Killer" threw 4 interceptions, yet the Eagles still managed a one-point win vs. Cleveland; the Jets were hyped as the worst offense leading up to the game, yet scored more points than any other team on Sunday (48); my Niners beat the Packers in good fashion!; and Peyton Manning is back!...he looked great.
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Last season's picks:
2011 Super Bowl
Interesting that this game is being played at "Peyton's Place", except that his little brother is the one going for the trophy.
1. NY Giants +3 vs. New England. (Line at Hilton, Jan 23). Enjoy the game.
Result: NY Giants 21 - New England 17 = WIN
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Conference Championships
1. Baltimore at New England -7 (Line at Hilton, Jan 20). New England's defensive stats are skewed IMO, as the numbers don't take into account the points the other teams need to make up to catch them. Regular season turnover differentials: New England +17, Baltimore +2. Baltimore's defense and running game (ala Ray Rice) is excellent. In fact, Baltimore beat the Patriots in the Wildcard in New England in '09 with a score 33-14. Of course, there was no Welker (injured), Gronkowski, or Hernandez in that game. Actually, New England had lost its last three playoff games before beating Denver last week. New England's offense is well established, and yet 7 points seems a lot to give in a game of this magnitude, right? Surely New England is due for a let-down after scoring more than 40 points last week, right? And Joe Flacco will mimic Brady in this game after his less than stellar season, right? It's the NFL. Nothing surprises me. I don't have the script, so I am going with my gut.
Result: Baltimore 20 - New England 23 = Loss
***
No play on the late game. I'm a Niner fan.
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Divisional Playoffs
1. New Orleans -3.5 at San Francisco (Line at Hilton, Jan 13). Niner defense has played lights out this season. Could they win this, sure. A lot of hype about how badly Saints have played on the road. So? They played 8 road games and lost 3. This is the Playoffs, and they remember what happened last year with a loss in Seattle. Niners have had problems scoring in the endzone. Drew Brees (46 TD's) vs. Alex Smith (17 TD's)....
Result: New Orleans 32 - San Francisco 36 = Loss
Not touching the Denver/NE game. I don't like two TD lines in the Playoffs, even though I think the Patriots will win this.
2. Houston at Baltimore -7.5 (Line at Hilton, Jan 13). If Arian Foster can penetrate the Raven defense for yardage, this could get dicey I suppose. My concern is Flacco, as Houston's defense is pretty good. My guess is the Raven defense will take care of business at home, and they allow Ray Rice more touches.
Result: Houston 13 - Baltimore 20 = Loss
3. NY Giants +7.5 at Green Bay (Line at Hilton, Jan 13). I like the way the Giants have been playing on both sides of the ball recently. They have developed a nice momentum, while the Packers have basically been on two byes leading up to this game. Two forces will be colliding in this one...should be a great game.
Result: NY Giants 37 - Green Bay 20 = WIN
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Wildcard Weekend
1. Atlanta at NY Giants -3 (Line at Hilton, Jan 2): With a healthy defense, and two of the best pass rushers, not to mention several weapons on offense, this is my choice for Sunday's wildcard at 1:00pm ET.
Result: Atlanta 2 - NY Giants 24 = WIN
2. Cincinnati at Houston -3 (Line at Hilton,Jan 2): Houston earned the right to be in the playoffs long before Cincinnati did. They also have depth beyond the first string.
Result: Cincinnati 10 - Houston 31 = WIN
3. Detroit at New Orleans Over 59.5 (Line at Hilton, Jan 7): Remembering the post season game between Arizona and Green Bay going 96 points...this game could qualify.
Result: Detroit 28 - New Orleans 45 = WIN
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Week 17
1. Carolina +8 at New Orleans. If Payton sits Brees, which he has done the last five years in week 17 (and lost), this one stands a good chance. If he doesn't sit him...could still stand a good chance. Carolina definitely coming to play in this one. Brees mentioned they need to play to keep momentum alive....we'll see.
Result: Carolina 17 - New Orleans 45 = Loss
2. Pittsburgh -6.5 at Cleveland. Steelers are still playing for the title and a better seed, while playing at the same time as Baltimore.
Result: Pittsburgh 13 - Cleveland 9 = Loss
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Week 16
Oops, thought I had put up my pick last night for Saturday. Oh well, nobody wrote to ask for it, so let's chalk this weekend up to Merry Christmas everyone. See you next week!
Record to date: 20-12-1 (62.5%)
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Week 15
1. New Orleans at Minnesota Under 53.5 (Line at Hiton Sunday, Dec 18, 11:45 am).
Result: New Orleans 42 - Minnesota 20 = Loss
Crazy weekend. Green Bay loses to Kansas City; Indianapolis gets their first win.
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Week 14
1. Buffalo at San Diego -7 (Line at Hilton Sat, Dec 10, 11:50am). Buffalo gives up a lot of yards on the ground. Should set up Rivers pretty nicely.
Result: Buffalo 10 - San Diego 37 = WIN
2. NY Giants +4 at Dallas (Line at Hilton Fri, Dec 9, 1:50pm). Heated game, Giants need to win this. Manning seems to be coming into his own late, with plenty of weapons.
Result: NY Giants 37 - Dallas 34 = WIN
3. NY Giants at Dallas Over 48.5 (Line at Mirage Fri, Dec 9, 2:00pm). Mucho scoring by both entirely possible in this one.
Result: NY Giants 37 - Dallas 34 = WIN
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Week 13
1. NYJets at Washington +3 (Line at Hilton as of Sunday, 11:00am ET).
Result: NYJets 34 - Washington 19 = Loss
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Week 12
1. Green Bay -6 at Detroit. (Line at Stratosphere as of Wed, 11:00pm ET). There is some unfinished business at play here. Rodgers went down with a concussion the last time these two met...
Result: Green Bay 27 - Detroit 15 = WIN
2. Carolina at Indianapolis Under 47 (Line at Atlantis as of Sunday, 10:45am ET) Don't understand this total that has been rising.
Result: Carolina 27 - Indianapolis 17 = WIN
3. Chicago +3 at Oakland (Line at Atlantis as of Sunday, 10:45 am ET) Run the ball.
Result: Chicago 20 - Oakland 25 = Loss
4. Denver +6 at San Diego (Line at Stratosphere as of Sunday, 10:45am ET). Revenge game.
Result: Denver 16 - San Diego 13 = WIN
1. San Diego at Chicago - Over 45 (Line at Hilton as of Thursday, 10:00am ET). Teams that played on Thursdays at home and the next week away have shown a good record for going over the next week. This total started at 46.5 and has dropped. We'll see.
Result: San Diego 20 - Chicago 31 = WIN
1. New Orleans at Atlanta (pk) (Line at Hilton, as of Sunday, 8:30am ET). Tough game to call, but siding with the home team in this divisional matchup.
Result: New Orleans 26 - Atlanta 23 = Loss
In overtime, Atlanta appeared to pick up a first down on a pass to Mike Cox, but he was ruled just short after referee Terry McAuley looked at the replay. Then, stunningly, Smith decided to go for it on fourth down from his own 29.
Michael Turner was stuffed.
Game over. All Saints needed was a FG after that. grrrr
2. New England +2 at NY Jets (Line at Hilton, as of Sunday, 8:30am ET). Patriots have two losses since their bye, and sent Haynesworth packing...maybe that will bring them some luck.
Result: New England 37 - NY Jets 16 = WIN
1. Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3 (Line at Mirage, as of Saturday, 7:45pm ET). I am on them again this week. It's a bit difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, especially if they are such blatant rivals and the loser of the first meeting is now home. The 3 looms large, because many games between these two have been decided by that number; however, watching Joe Flacco on the other side has been painful. I hope he doesn't decide to suddenly wake up on Sunday, like he did in the second half last week. The Steelers stomped on New England last week. Could either be a let-down spot, or a confidence builder.
Result: Baltimore 23 - Pittsburgh 20 = Loss
2. Green Bay -5.5 at San Diego (Line at Hilton, as of Sunday, 8:30am ET). The Packers have a division game vs. Minnesota on deck, but off their bye should handle this team by spreading the ball; not to mention San Diego has been dismal in the redzone.
Result: Green Bay 45 - San Diego 38 = WIN
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Week 8
1. New England at Pittsburgh +2.5 (Line at Hilton, as of Saturday, 11:30pm ET). New England has a nice record vs. Pittsburgh, but I am making a contrarian play here and going against the hype.
Result: New England 17 - Pittsburgh 25 = WIN
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Week 7
1. Green Bay -9 at Minnesota (Line at Hilton, as of Wednesday, Oct. 20, 12:45am ET). Minnesota going with new QB this week. He might light a spark...but IMO, they need a bonfire to keep up with Green Bay. Green Bay has a bye next week; hopefully they don't take it easy in this game.
Result: Green Bay 33 - Minnesota 27 = Loss
2. Atlanta +3.5 at Detroit (Line at Hilton as of Fri, Oct. 21, 1:45pm ET). Michael Turner could be deciding factor in this game.
Result: Atlanta 23 - Detroit 16 = WIN
3. MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL. Baltimore at Jacksonville - Over 38.5 (Line at Hilton, as of Monday, Oct. 24, 4:45pm ET). Some say scoring will be at a premium given Baltimore's defense. Depends on the strategy for both teams if you ask me. Jacksonville's defense can hold its own at times...and many times good defenses cause points on the board.
Result: Baltimore 7 - Jacksonville 12 = Loss
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1. Houston at Baltimore -7.5 (Line at Mirage as of Friday, Oct. 14, 11:45pm ET). Should have hopped on at opening bell, but still like Baltimore to take advantage of the injuries that have befallen Houston.
Result: Houston 14 - Baltimore 29 = WIN
2. San Fran at Detroit -4 (Line at Hilton and several other places as of Friday, Oct. 14, 11:45 pm ET). I have thought about Detroit coming off an emotional win last Monday night, but I have also considered SF's huge point win over TB at home last weekend, plus the fact that SF has lost two key players as a result. Detroit fans are out of their minds this year, the place will be loud...and their defense should play a significant role vs. Alex Smith.
Result: San Fran 25 - Detroit 19 = Loss
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Week 5
1. Green Bay -6 at Atlanta (Line at Hilton as of Thursday, Oct. 6, 11:00am ET). Could be a trap line as they opened at -3.5. As long as they are healthy, I'll stick with them. Atlanta is seeking revenge big time for last year's loss is what I am hearing. Looking at it another way, you would think Green Bay wants to prove it wasn't a fluke.
Result: Green Bay 25 - Atlanta 14 = WIN
That's it for me this week. Nothing else appeals to me.
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Week 4
1. Carolina at Chicago -6.5 (Line at Hilton as of Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2:30pm ET). Carolina lost a couple of its good defensive players for the season, plus I don't think Cam Newton has faced this good of a defensive front yet.
Result: Carolina 29 - Chicago 34 = Loss
2. New Orleans -7 at Jacksonville (Line at Hilton as of Wed, Sept 28, 2:15pm ET). First of 3 game consecutive road trip schedule for Saints in this non-conference match-up, that will be followed by 2 division games. I think about these schedules, but comparing offenses in this match-up, I don't think giving up a key number 7 is too much. We'll see.
Result: New Orleans 23 - Jacksonville 10 = WIN
3. Denver at Green Bay -12.5 (Line at Hilton as of Wed, Sept 28, 2:30pm ET). Packers haven't played at home in almost a month. This place will be rocking.
Result: Denver 23 - Green Bay 49 = WIN
4. Atlanta -4.5 at Seattle (Line at Hilton as of Sat, Oct 1, 11:00am ET). As they say in horse racing, this is a drop down in class.
Result: Atlanta 30 - Seattle 28 = Loss
5. New England -5 at Oakland (Line at Hilton as of Sat, Oct 1, 11:00am ET). Embarrassing loss to Buffalo last week, whereas the Raiders are coming off an emotional win against the Jets. I see two situational plays colliding.
Result: New England 31 - Oakland 19 = WIN
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Week 3
1. Detroit/Minnesota: OVER 44.5 (Line at the Mirage as of Sat., Sept. 24, 9:15am ET) Minnesota needs to get something going here offensively; we know the Lions are capable.
Result: Detroit 26 - Minnesota 23 = WIN
2. Baltimore -4.5 at St. Louis (Line at the Mirage as of Sat., Sept. 24, 11:00pm ET). Giving them another go this week, as a bounce-back from a loss.
Result: Baltimore 37 - St. Louis 7 = WIN
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Week 2
1. Indianapolis +2.5 vs. Cleveland: Just a hunch. (Line as of Thursday at Leroy's, Sept 15, 11:00pm ET)
Result: Indianapolis 19 - Cleveland 27 = LOSS
2. Baltimore -6 at Tennessee: Titans did yield 133 yards last week on the ground, so hopefully RB Ray Rice will be a key factor today. (Line as of Sunday at Las Vegas Hilton, Sept 18, 8:30am ET)
Result: Baltimore 13 - Tennessee 26 = LOSS
3. Pittsburgh -14 vs. Seattle: Seattle was a lousy road team last season, which showed again vs. the Niners last week. Now they travel 3 time zones for an early game in the East....vs. a very embarrassed Steeler team. (Line as of Sunday at Las Vegas Hilton, Sept 18, 8:30m ET)
Result: Pittsburgh 24 - Seattle 0 = WIN
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Week 1
1. Arizona -7 vs. Carolina: At home, Kevin Kolb as QB...he showed a lot of gumption last year in Philadelphia. (Line as of Friday, Sept 9, 2:30am ET)
Result: Arizona 28 - Carolina 21 = PUSH
2. New England -7 at Miami: Tom Brady vs. Chad Henne is where I am going with this one. (Line as of Friday, Sept 9, 2:30am ET)
Result: New England 38 - Miami 24 = WIN
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